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Mitigation

Click the thumbnail to view an interactive graphic highlighting various countries and their cumulative per capita, cumulative national and annual national emissions

Commitments to reduce GHG emissions, broadly referred to as mitigation, CClickform the heart of what countries are negotiating in Copenhagen.  With the legally binding mitigation commitments established under the Kyoto Protocol set to expire at the end of 2012, new commitments are needed to both deepen existing commitments and broaden the range of countries who are taking action.

Key Mitigation Issues to Be Addressed in Copenhagen

Overarching Goal

According to IPCC’s Fourth Assessment released in 2007, the best estimates of the ecological threshold or “tipping point” that must be avoided to prevent the most serious predicted impacts from climate change is a total global average temperature change of 2º Celsius above pre-industrial levels.    This  2°C temperature threshold has now been broadly embraced  by more than 100 countries, including the United States, as a guiding benchmark for global mitigation efforts.  The 2007 IPCC report translated this threshold as requiring a stabilization of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at an atmospheric concentration of 450 parts per million (ppm) of CO₂ equivalent. (current levels are 387ppm & rising 1.5-2.5ppm/year)

In more recent scientific information however, many scientists and institutions, including from NASA Scientist Jim Hansen and IPCC Chair Pachauri have recently stated that a 2°C/450ppm benchmark for mitigation efforts may not be adequate to stabilize the climate at safe levels, and a lower atmospheric concentration threshold of 350ppm concentration  level should be the goal to stay within critical ecological thresholds. Many developing countries, particularly small island nations who are particularly vulnerable to sea-level rise, have recently shifted their negotiating position to reflect the new science, and are calling for the adoption of a 1.5°C ecological threshold to serve as the mitigation goal commitments should be designed to achieve.

Pathways to Achieving Goal

Near Term Commitments for Annex I/Developed Countries

Building on the initial commitments under the Kyoto Protocol, developed countries have put forward a range of new commitments that if adopted would extend the carbon markets established under the Kyoto Protocol beyond 2012.  IPCC estimated that in order to achieve a 450ppm global stabilization of greenhouse gas pollution level, Annex I countries would need to reduce GHG emissions on the order of 25-40% below 1990 levels by 2020, and 80%-95% below by 2050. By comparison, a 350ppm stabilization level target trajectory is estimated too require at least 40% reductions below 1990 levels from industrialized countries by 2020.

Based on current Annex I commitments that have been announced, the aggregate Annex I reduction would be far below the recommended level to stay within 2°C.

Developing country commitments to take action

GHG Emissions are rising incredibly rapidly in the developing world, though on the whole, developing country emissions are still far below the per capita levels of Annex I countries,  In order to stay within the 2° or below threshold however, developing countries are being called on to take action that will reduce the growth of their emissions and put them on a lower carbon development pathway.    A “deflection” in emissions growth on the order of 15-30% by developing countries has been estimated as consistent with staying within a 2° C emissions pathway.

Developing country mitigation commitments are likely to come in two general forms:

Voluntary

Many developing have recently put significant voluntary reduction commitments on the table in the lead up to Copenhagen that would produce a significant deflection .  Brazil, Indonesia, China, India, South Korea, South Korea and Mexico have announced targets to reduce their emissions significantly below projected BAU levels for 2020.

Supported

As agreed to under the Bali Action Plan, developed countries have dual obligation, reduce their own emissions, and provide  developing countries with financial and technical support to achieve low carbon mitigation actions.

Peak Year

The challenge and urgency for much stronger near term action clearly illustrated in the context of “Peak Year.” As shown by a recent analysis by German Advisory Council on Global Change (WGBU),a delay of only 5 years when global emissions “peak” demands an increase in the annual rates of reductions that are likely beyond what is physically possible.   The International Energy Agency recently estimated that for each year of delay in driving a significant reduction in global emissions, it will cost $500 B more to stay within a 2° threshold.